Modeling the evolution of OpenStreetMap with Cellular Automata using a new VGI Contribution Index

Major research efforts have so far dealt with OSM data quality analysis, but the modality of the evolution of OpenStreetMap (OSM) across space and time has been barely noted. Therefore, a new study by Jokar Arsanjani et al. that has recently been accepted for publication in Transactions in GIS aims to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of contributions in OSM by proposing a contribution index (CI) in order to investigate the dynamism of OSM by considering a per cell analysis of the nodes quantity, interactivity, semantics, and attractivity (the ability to attract contributors). Additionally, this research explores whether OSM has been constantly attracting new users and new contributions, or if OSM has experienced a decline in its attractivity. Using the Stuttgart region of Germany as a case study, the empirical findings of the CI over time confirm that since 2007, OSM has been constantly attracting new users, who create new features, edit the existing spatial objects, and enrich already available ones with attributes. This rate has been dramatically growing since 2011. The utilization of a Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model provides indications that by the end of 2016 and 2020, the rise of CI will spread out over the study area and only a few cells without OSM featues shall remain.

Jokar Arsanjani, J., Mooney, P., Helbich, M., Zipf, A., (2015; accepted): An exploration of future patterns of the contributions to OpenStreetMap and development of a Contribution Index, Transactions in GIS. Wiley. (accepted 2014).

Transactions in GIS